The Star Entertainment Group Limited is currently rated five stars by our Analyst Rating and trades at 0.4 of its price to fair value on a $0.27 share price (as at 1st October 2024). Undoubtably the presence of Crown Sydney results in a concession of market share from Star. It is approximated that Star will concede 30% of its table revenue within three years and 60% of VIP share by fiscal 2028. Nonetheless, the new competitive environment will necessitate improvement in both players and expand the Sydney VIP and premium gaming markets. Star’s core asset is The Star Sydney, which at one point was generating ~70% of the group’s earnings as the only casino in Sydney.

While former management has been blamed heavily, the company still has a lot of work to do to fix the business. However, the Bell Report underscores the NICC's concerns that it was not receiving all of the facts from The Star at a time when we needed certainty the company could fund and prioritise an urgent business turnaround. While most of the above listed companies have been fined by regulators, the consequences for individual directors have been limited or non-existent. And herein lies the problem – lack of accountability breeds inattention, indolence and recklessness.

Discussions between Star and the State continue to develop, with the hope that tax increases will not be as damaging as projected by investment analysts. Star's recent financial results were delayed by liquidity concerns and the company's shares were suspended from the ASX. The company subsequently secured fresh funding, published its numbers and returned to trading in volatile style. Last Monday, 20 January, the Star Casino share price crashed 17.9% on the heels of the company's second-quarter update. The price tag for the assets is around $60 million, money sorely needed to keep the cash-strapped company afloat. Management noted that the transaction remains subject to a number of customary conditions, including relevant government and regulatory consent, as well as the finalisation of long-form transaction documents.

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Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. In order to avoid a repeat of the above, the company is making an extensive effort to protect its exclusive position in Queensland through substantial capital investments. Unfortunately, due to the proximity of the Brisbane and Gold Coast casinos some cannibalisation may occur in the smaller gaming market.

Average annual revenue growth is forecasted at 4% for five years ended fiscal 2029 as the business recovers from near—term headwinds, boosted by new developments in Queensland coming online. On the profitability front, operating margins will likely make a recovery to 11% by fiscal 2029 from ~3% in fiscal 2024. This was the beginning of trouble as it proved insufficient to weather near-term earnings headwinds, amidst fines and equity contributions for the new Queen’s Wharf Brisbane development.

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